[thebmax]

Without the solar ITC and wind PTC most projects wouldn't be feasible. I'm skeptical these will last past a major tax overhaul as planned this year. I don't think your view on oil prices is correct. Even if supply cuts work US shale producers will pick up any slack. And I don't agree with your long term take on electric cars. Gasoline cars are just better for anyone who actually needs their car. Electric is a luxury and not necessarily cheaper at current gas prices.

[toomuchtodo]

* Wind does not require any ITC credits to be competitive, solar will require them for another 1-2 years. [1]

* Shale production is not nimble, and OPEC can always profit at lower prices. Saudi Arabia can profit at $12/barrel. Shale is barely profitable at $40/barrel, and needs $50-60/barrel to really be worth the production.

* Gasoline cars are twice as expensive per mile to operate compared to electric cars. EV drivetrains last forever. The internal combustion engine is not long for this world (witness how badly VW had to cheat to pass emissions standards). OPEC participants can't balance their budgets at current market prices, so the price must go up, making EVs even more attractive. [2]

Mind you, I don't really care if you agree with me. We're already on a trajectory; I'm simply describing that trajectory.

[1] http://www.utilitydive.com/news/how-wind-and-solar-plan-to-t...

[2] https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf (warning: pdf)

[emp_zealoth]

Seriously,EV drivetrains last forever? What about battery packs that will be fucking dead after a few years of driving?

Have you ever worked with actual machinery? Electric motors can fail just as well, the windings might break or burn out, the bearings wear out, there is still some gearing in the car as well

Solar and wind is ruinously expensive (just look at german energy prices before and afrer start of their retarded experiment - and remember they pretty much drove out a lot of energy intensive heavy industry to China)

Do you really think its a good thing energy prices go negative because of generators that provide miniscule amounts od total required energy?

[toomuchtodo]

Oi.

Tesla warranties their battery pack and electric motors for 8 years/unlimited miles. Their CTO has stated they expect 10-15 year lifetimes, minimum, from their stationary storage battery packs. Existing Model S data has shown their battery packs only degraded 6% over ~180k miles of use. The drivetrain will last the entire lifetime of the vehicle.

Electric motors are more reliable than internal combustion engines. Full stop.

Wind is cheaper than all other energy sources. Solar is still expensive, but that's what subsidies are for.

Yes, it's absolutely fine for energy prices to go negative when renewables are over producing.

[Gibbon1]

I'll back you up on the electric motors being more reliable than gasoline engines. Gasoline engines by design have all sorts of moving parts where there is sliding friction mediated by partial lubrication[1]. Wear is inescapable.

Simple math gives you an estimate for the max run time of a gasoline engine.

200,000 miles / 30 mph => 6600 hours.

So after 7000 hours of run time a gasoline engine is shot. Industrial electric motors easily achieve run times that are ten times that number as do the power electronics needed to drive them.

[1] Partial lubrication means you have metal to metal contact. Full lubrication ala a pressure fed journal bearing is a different story. There the bearing surfaces are separated by a film of fluid. These types of bearing can an do last for decades.

[toomuchtodo]

Thank you for the assist!

[edblarney]

" Wind does not require any ITC credits to be competitive, solar will require them for another 1-2 years. [1]"

This is not true.

Wind is only competitive in very specific environments, and there are usually tax-breaks etc. hidden in the process.

Solar will not be competitive in most areas of the US for a very long time.

You must be young.

I remember hearing similar stuff 20 years ago. Then 10 years ago. "In just a few years it will be profitable".

Not in most places.

[toomuchtodo]

Okay Ed. I'll take what you said, with no citations, under consideration. As opposed to all of the citations with data above.

[edblarney]

Yes, a lifetime of realism is worth more than a few selective quotes.

You want a quote - here's one from the CBC:

"The province will drop the guaranteed rate for small rooftop solar projects from 80.2 cents per kilowatt hour to 54.9 cents, while larger solar installations will get between 34.7 cents and 44.5 cents a kWh."

The Canadian government pays citizens 80 cents a Kw/h to generate solar electricity.

They sell it back to consumers at about 12 cents a Kw/h.

So you tell me with a straight face how they're going to get '80 cents Kw/h' down to '12 cents Kw/h' in 2 years?

Or even 10.

Not going to happen in most of North American for a very long time.

[toomuchtodo]

> So you tell me with a straight face how they're going to get '80 cents Kw/h' down to '12 cents Kw/h' in 2 years?

> Or even 10.

You put the solar panels on your own roof.

[peller]

A link that may change your perspective on electric cars: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/06/how-tesla-will-change-your-lif...