[Afforess]

No. You're correct, causation is complicated, A-Z and all the greek letters too are part of a single cause. But the situation is worse than that.

The reason humans are superstitious is that we don't seek answers, we seek narratives. We seek to explain without disrupting what we already believe. We might see the real cause and effect and rewrite what we see to fit what we want.

[__derek__]

You sound like someone who's read The Black Swan. If you haven't, though, you probably don't need to.