[schoen]

I used to think computer literacy was obviously increasing over time, because that was the narrative about the future that I heard (computers are becoming more important, people are getting more exposure to them → clearly people will understand them better and better), but now I'm not so sure!

[frobozz]

Given that narrative, it should be increasing in the sense of getting more people off the floor and on to the bottom rung.

There's no reason to expect that it should be increasing in the sense of a higher percentage of people reaching the higher rungs.

It's a literacy vs. fluency thing. Improvements in global communication and travel should mean that more of us can speak a few foreign languages in the sense that we can ask directions to the station and buy a beer, but it doesn't necessarily mean that significantly more of us would be able to read and discuss the details of the major works of literature in those languages.