[CmdrSprinkles]

While not an expert (and actually something of a critic):

I think the idea is that new bitcoins will be mined at a rate that will outstrip those lost. A LOT of the early coins were lost because they basically had no value. That was when mining was easy. Now, bitcoins have value and people are less likely to lose it. And mining is now harder.

Similarly, we migrated from people keeping their wallets in a text file (money in a mattress) toward lots of sites like coinbase that basically give this Totally Free And Unregulated currency a system of banks. That further decreases the likelihood of money disappearing, especially if said banks start offering interest in exchange for being allowed to do loans. That resolves issues of people like me having some in a wallet that they are unlikely to ever collect/convert to fiat (not worth the hassle).

So while bitcoin is likely to fail for MANY reasons, I don't think lost currency will be it (unless it is more stuff like that Japanese bitcoin bank that just went dark).

[niij]

This is incorrect. Bitcoins will eventually all be moved. There is a limit on how many can be mined. At that point, the "miners" will no longer be finding new Bitcoins, but harvesting the transaction fees (which take computational power to verify)

[CmdrSprinkles]

And by the final saturation point the value should be known well enough (and the other infrastructure aspects I mentioned will be in place) that lost coins will be a negligible concern. An expansion of "exchanges" will help a lot as then you no longer have problems with abandoned wallets as the funds themselves can be used elsewhere until the owner decides to withdraw.

[tromp]

> new bitcoins will be mined at a rate that will outstrip those lost

The yearly loss is some small percentage, maybe between 1% and 3%. The yearly bitcoin mining production dips under 1% in another 3 halvings, or roughly in the year 2028.