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by arrel 3487 days ago
It's tempting to describe bitcoin as "investing", but it's really gambling. I could say I bought $30K in lottery tickets and ended up making a few million off it, but I wouldn't call it investing.

It might sound like semantics, but too many people mistake gambling for investing and end up losing their shirts.

3 comments

I made this mistake. Bought £1500 worth of btc a couple of years ago, and they've appreciated nicely. I didn't feel so clever during the year-long downswing, though. I've started putting most of my money in an index fund and only a small amount in gold each month (I'll probably start splitting my gold budget between gold and bitcoin at some point). I learned that investing isn't about making speculative bets but figuring out where your money needs to go to best fit with your life goals.

I was reading lots of perma-bear/libertarian bloggers, the type who predict impending financial apocalypse. I still think they have a case, which is why I still sock away some of my monthly savings in gold/btc. But I also now realise that you can't bet your entire future on one possible outcome, hence the bulk of my money going into the index fund. If I save up enough that it becomes worthwhile I might look into the Buffet strategy of individual stock picking (he says with a small amount to invest you can make superb returns in well chosen small-caps).

Why can't it be both? Isn't "investing" in the stock market also gambling?

Bitcoin is a pretty great investment asset actually, since there is a finite, limited supply, and any sum can be transferred nearly instantaneously.

The difference is in expectation of return. In retrospect, bitcoin is a great "investment," but looking at the hundreds of other failed cryptocurrencies it's clear that early buyers of bitcoin got extremely lucky.

It's the same as seed stage startup "investing," which is likewise really gambling, and you either have to diversify heavily, get very lucky, or have the ability to influence the outcome yourself to win in the long run.

How is it "gambling" any more than, say, stock is? Because stock prices vary based on actual real events? Well, bitcoin prices vary based on actual real events as well.
Buying stock is buying interest in a company. Buying an individual stock certainly does have a significant speculative element, but in aggregate companies are expected to make money, and so stocks are expected to either increase in price or pay dividends.

Buying bitcoin as an investment is more like forex trading (in fact, that's almost literally what it is), which is zero-sum.

I would argue that buying a single stock is gambling, but buying into a fund, or taking the time to research and invest in hundreds of stocks, is investing.