[shubhamjain]

> that anyone could easily see they had no chance of ever meeting

sigh. I hope one day people would stop being so cocksure around an industry that has always proven otherwise. I mean, yes, SV does have a slew of absurd valuations based on non-existent business models but doesn't the past success of some of these ventures imply that it can actually work? And all those obvious facts are just "hindsight bias" at work?

[pdeuchler]

Was there a possibility of them having a profitable revenue stream? Sure. Was there a probability? Definitely not, and people (myself included) have been saying this about PH ever since its inclusion in YC. These same people have been around the internet block so to speak, and personally I've seen dozens of much larger, much more valuable, and much more active communities die off because even after bombarding their users with ads, trying affiliate sales (PH's most recent revenue model), and charging subscriptions it is incredibly hard to monetize an internet community that is not predicated on money changing hands.

It's not a business, it's a social club. So why was $28mm pumped into it?

[jamesfzhang]

You have no idea what the probability is. It's not 100%, but it's also not 0%. You also have no idea what Instagram's probability (and hence, expected value) was at the time of their acquisition. Having such a short-sighted, negative outlook isn't healthy.