[bluehawk]

I liken it to the time period when Kodak had made the first digital camera, but allowed other companies to surpass them and eat their breakfast, and now Kodak is bankrupt.

The german (and american) auto companies will either need to drastically alter their composition or other companies will take their place.

[mc32]

I think it's a somewhat apt comparison in that if the ICE money-making portion does not use those profits to develop good EV alternatives, newcomers can leapfrog them.

On the other hand, Kodak was a little different, they feared selling digital would eat into their "film" business. But EV does not eat into the manufacturers' "petro" business because most MFG are not selling fuels. So it's not like they have a perverse incentive is what I'm saying and Kodak suffered from perverse incentives.

[gyjvdf]

It's not about perverse incentives, it's about "the secret sauce".

Traditional car manufacturers perfected the ICE and dealership network, while the "secret sauce" of electric cars is batteries and network of charging stations.

Practically, GM is right now at a disadvantage relative to Tesla

[mc32]

I don't see much disadvantage. It's not like Tesla is designing and manufacturing the batteries they use all by themselves. Sure, they have input --as Boeing has input w/re GE engines.

Given that Tesla will be charging for their networks, it's not an advantage over other charging networks, so overall it'll be a non-issue. Having dealerships does grant the traditional MFGs some advantage but that may erode in the future if dealerships become less necessary in helping the sales of cars (ie. become more on-demand fleets). ICE car MFGs also have _capacity_. Tesla does not have the capacity right now.

[greglindahl]

Tesla designs and manufactures battery packs. GM is on record saying that it took them a long time and a lot of money to develop the battery pack for the Bolt.

[dangrossman]

GM didn't develop the battery pack for the Bolt. The battery cells, battery pack, charging systems, motors, computers and infotainment systems in the Bolt are all designed and manufactured by LG Chem.

[mc32]

Tesla uses Panasonic cells to make their batteries[1]. I'm sure Tesla has some circuitry/electronics to control the cells, but it's not like the key battery technology is all Tesla's.

The Gig Factory allows Tesla to ensure they have enough batteries for their car fleet so that they don't suffer from shortages as other MFGs put a demand on suppliers.

[1]http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104609_panasonic-to-bui...

[kuschku]

Actually, most of that IP belongs to Panasonic, with whom Telsa is cooperating.

And German manufacturers have bought access to that IP already.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Telsa dies very quickly once the actual EV sales start.

[dx034]

All major car manufacturers have plans to introduce EV very soon or have already done so. It's no comparison with cameras or TVs where some companies ignored new technology. The question for car manufacturers is just how fast it will happen. For a company the size of VW it's very risky to go into the new technology too fast if consumers don't want it yet. They still need to produce their current products (and make money doing so).

Finding a way to shift towards EV while maintaining economies of scale is the crucial part here. Tesla doesn't have that problem because they don't have the legacy. But they also couldn't produce 10mln vehicles/year within a few years and are not yet profitable.

I actually think that companies have realized how dramatic the shift will be. But EVs are still just a niche and will likely not gain traction before 2020 or so. Reducing capacity of ICE vehicles before EVs really take of is too risky. However, having EV models ready means you can likely shift most production within a few years and probably produce at very low costs.

In addition to that, brand reputation is very important when it comes to cars. Especially regarding security. Tesla has a great record but many Chinese producers do not. That's why you hardly find any Chinese cars on European roads. This will probably not change with EVs, people would still prefer a Toyota/VW/BMW to a lesser known Chinese brand (even if there's no evidence to back that up).

[ams6110]

Except that digital photography was better in almost every way than film-and-print photography. Electric cars have some advantages but are (at present) woefully inadequate in other ways. I don't think the comparison is the same.

[iammyIP]

Early digital cameras were worse in almost every way, picture resolution, noise, color. The only thing they had going for them was that you could quickly look at the pictures on a computer screen and didn't need to buy film rolls. It took a while until digital was somewhat comparable with analog film for professional use. Quite similar to the electric car situation now actually.