[MooMooMilkParty]

Lorenz's Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow is the earliest work on the topic that I can think of. It's relatively accessible too.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)0...

[mturmon]

Nice pointer. And in particular, Figure 2 of the paper you linked, which shows the simple "Lorenz System" orbiting about a state C for a long time, and then transitioning (at a hard-to-predict time) to a far-away state C'.