[srb-]

As a fan of all electric cars, I really hope the Bolt does well. However, my understanding is that GM/LG only have enough battery manufacturing capacity for 50,000 units a year. So that puts a major cap on how much success it can have, at least initially.

This is why Tesla longs are so bullish on the stock... even if the other car companies instantly switched all their models to electric, there wouldn't be enough battery supply to meet that demand for years. Tesla, on the other hand, should be sitting pretty with their Gigafactory 1.

[Animats]

Tesla's "Gigafactory" currently has just the assembly line for battery packs that used to be in Fremont. LG's factory in Holland, MI is the largest battery factory in the US and is set up for easy expansion.[1] The Chevrolet Division of General Motors has a good track record at manufacturing large numbers of cars. They can probably make as many as they can sell.

Tesla is still learning how to scale.

[1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20151214/OEM06/312149992/lg-...

[srb-]

I'd be glad to be wrong! But according to [1] LG's factory might get to 3 GWh output in a few years. At 60 KWh per Bolt that is 50,000 cars, in a few years.

Tesla is planning 150GWh eventually, but starting at least in the 10's of GWh's to start. Lets say 30. At 30 GWh that is potentially 500,000 Model 3s.

Obviously, this is all speculative on both sides. Let me know if my calculations are off or I missed something.

[1] http://www.autonews.com/article/20151214/OEM06/312149992/lg-...

[Animats]

LG has other battery factories for EVs. One in Poland, one in China, some in Korea... Also, since the Faraday Future project seems to be tanking, and LG built up battery capacity for that, they probably have some extra capacity.

China is building about 100,000 electric buses a year. That's where the batteries are going right now.