| If you want to bet, this guy proposes a variety of things to bet on: http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/16/you-are-still-crying-wo... "1. Total hate crimes incidents as measured here will be not more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology [confidence: 80%] 2. Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump’s presidency [confidence: 99%] 3. US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency [confidence: 95%] 4. Trump cabinet will be at least 10% minority [confidence: 90%], at least 20% minority [confidence: 70%], at least 30% minority [30%]. Here I’m defining “minority” to include nonwhites, Latinos, and LGBT people, though not women. Note that by this definition America as a whole is about 35% minority and Congress is about 15% minority. 5. Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency [confidence: 95%] 6. Race relations as perceived by blacks, as measured by this Gallup poll, will do better under Trump than they did under Obama (ie the change in race relations 2017-2021 will be less negative/more positive than the change 2009-2016) [confidence: 70%]. 7. Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job [confidence: 99%]. 8. No large demographic group (> 1 million people) get forced to sign up for a “registry” [confidence: 95%]
9> No large demographic group gets sent to internment camps [confidence: 99%] 10. Number of deportations during Trump’s four years will not be greater than Obama’s 8 [confidence: 90%] If you disagree with me, come up with a bet and see if I’ll take it. And if you don’t, stop. Stop fearmongering." |