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by fela 3494 days ago
"it’s telling you that there’s at most an alpha chance that the difference arose from random chance. In 95 out of 100 parallel universes, your paper found a difference that actually exists. I’d take that bet."

This is wrong. It’s telling you that there’s at most an alpha chance that a difference like that (or more) would have arisen from random chance if the quantities are actually equal. And if the quantities are equal 95 out of 100 parallel universes would not be able to reject the null hypothesis.

Is he saying that he would take the xkcd bet[0] on the frequentist side?

[0] https://xkcd.com/1132/