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by nkkar
3497 days ago
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I see this timeline comparison very often and it seems to me very hand wavy. Sure, it's a nice narrative, but I don't see any real reasons why this 'pattern' from 70s to 00s should repeat itself. We're talking 30 odd years here. That we got here because of a series of logical steps is already quite a statement without extending it to the future! (I borrow Nassim's Black Swan perspective here) In hindsight it's easy to say that this happened because of that, and so on, and I'm not sure this automagically extends to blockchain related things. If we're set on talking about 5 to 25yrs, could you share your vision sans historical comparison? Otherwise, or additionally, could you share your opinion on what the more immediate potential wins of bitcoin/ethereum et al are? |
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* 1-4 years from now: we have a robust scalable blockchain from someone, maybe Ethereum. This is essential for anything big to follow.
* 2-5 years from now: we get a robust identity and reputation system. Or likely multiple reputation and identity systems
* 3-6 years from now: blockchain tech moves beyond startup and incubator stage with a few widely used apps. Maybe intl money transfer, a decentralized social network, or decentralized AirBnB.
* 10-25 years from now: the things that are referred to in the OP article above by Joseph Lubin occur.
You asked about 'immediate wins'; for Ethereum it is mind-share among developers. At present Ethereum is the place to learn smart contracts and to experiment with code.