[sliken]

Impressive to watch. The Tesla drives quite politely, but not annoyingly so (read that as impeding traffic). It actually stopped for the joggers who wasn't actually in the road, but very close. It also waited for a bicyclist on the right to turn left in front of the car.

Looks pretty promising, not bad, especially since the trend in software (and sensors) is to get better over time.

[sundvor]

This is pretty impressive. Still, at 00:54, getting a closer look at the female runners? Someone following could have gotten caught out if driving too close / playing Pokemon.

A human driver (well, at least myself) would simply have lifted the foot off the accelerator somewhat and drifted closer to the centre line when passing - seeing as there was no oncoming traffic.

[Klathmon]

Perhaps the car knows it's own capabilities better than we humans do.

Maybe it knows that if the joggers were to suddenly jump out, doing what you or I would do isn't enough, so it slowed down to a near stop just in case.

Also, it's a bit of a "blind corner", so drifting out toward the middle of the lane might not be the best idea (again, even though it's probably something I as a person in that scenario would have done).

[JoeAltmaier]

I've wondered about this. Totally defensive driving would reduce a car to 5mph - somebody might jump out from behind every blind corner or mailbox.

Truth is, we all drive fairly irresponsibly, trusting in the rules of the road and human self-preservation to keep most stuff out of our way. And if we do hit somebody who dashes out on the freeway, well that's an accident or 'their fault' or 'nobody's fault' so no foul.

Will we allow automated drivers that privilege?

[ghaff]

Yeah. We do (or should) typically drive "defensively." But in practice that doesn't mean that we defend against everyone potentially pulling some utterly crazy stunt at any moment. For example, we watch for pedestrians but we don't actually worry too much that there might be someone hiding behind a tree who is going to jump into traffic. And we may be somewhat cautious at cross-streets but we still have a general expectation that a car isn't going to just randomly blow through a red light in the middle of its cycle.

[Klathmon]

I think it's going to take some societal change, but we will have to.

Computers are just an extension of ourselves. The people making these systems will make mistakes, these systems will kill people (and arguably already have), but hopefully they will kill less than we currently do by not having them.

There's this stigma around "computers" where people treat them differently than everything else. Yes, you're getting into a car whose programming could cause you to die, but you are always relying on this kind of thing. Getting in a regular car, you are relying on the engineer who designed the braking system to have been correct, you are relying on the factory worker to have been paying attention that day, and the QC robot to have been programmed correctly, etc...

We need to get away from that, we need to treat the computer in your car as you would treat it's braking system. Accidents will happen, people will get hurt, bugs will occur. If they are systemic, there will need to be changes, recalls, and fixes. But the car will never operate in 100% of conditions flawlessly, and neither will you.

[jjnoakes]

The big difference is, if I make a mistake and hurt myself, my family, or others, I have myself to blame. If my car makes a mistake though, I have someone else to blame.

Even though the statistics may point to self-driving cars being safer in the aggregate, would an individual be willing to give up control to software which might make a mistake and kill them? Even if, statistically, they might be safer?

Will people make the rational choice, or the emotional choice?

[zobzu]

just film and show a complete flight from an airliner from the cockpit. flights are fully autonomous except take off and landing, which still are computer assisted.

all crashes occur when the pilot overrides the flight system or the runway has no support for computer aided landing (ils).

thats the only reason flying is statistically safer than driving.

[AtheistOfFail]

The issue is really about capitalism.

A video where a car manages to stop because a drunk falls into your lane will make the stock soar.

A video where a car hits an old lady who jumps in front of your car will make the stock crash.

There are people on either side who want this technology to succeed or fail (not self-driving, i mean electric cars)

[zobzu]

seems like a dumb statement. why in hell would you think its ok to hit the lady when the car can avoid it?

getting there 30s later on average is worth killing grandmas? with automated cars you dont even have to pay attention or care. get in get out.

[sundvor]

Perhaps the AI also needs to be able to perceive the motivations of the humans ie read body language. If the joggers suddenly turned their heads to the left and twisted their bodies etc, then that would to a greater degree warrant the extreme caution. There's a lot of work cut out for the machine learning engineers.

[Klathmon]

I agree, but until then I'm guessing they are going to play it safe.

That being said, looking at that portion of the video again it looks like this may have just been the system having trouble figuring out if the people were in the road until it was closer.

[inimino]

On perfectly marked roads, in fair weather, with no bad behaviour seen from other drivers in the video. Impressive, but the technology has a long way to go yet before it can replace human drivers.

[Gys]

I do not understand why the focus on self driving is so much on the whole trip.

90 - 95% of the time I am driving long stretches, I spend on highways. No problem if only that part would be done selfdriving. Those few minutes in busy town centers I do not mind to do myself. No problem of driving short stretches (10 - 15 min) either.

[kalleboo]

Autodriving 90% of the time would be a fantastic feature.

Autodriving 100% of the time is where it gets revolutionary (mass-layoffs of truck drivers, taxi drivers, summon features that park cheaply outside of downtown).

The former is great, but there's a lot of hype going around right now so it's not strange for people to be cynical.

[nullc]

I think anywhere between 80% and 99.999% would cause a lot of accidents... "good enough to not pay attention and be inattentive when it needs your help, not good enough to not need your help."

[IanCal]

It depends on where the 80% is. If it's "80% of the roads in the country" that's one thing, if it's "at random points, at any time and on average for 20% of your journey you'll be taking control" that's another.

It's all about predictability. Even just full motorway / major road driving would be pretty awesome, and the car would know when it's coming up to a section you need to drive and you can have plenty of warning. Not "HELP DRIVER I SAW EITHER A LEAF OR A CHILD QUICK TAKE OVER"

[Spivak]

If I have to pay attention to the road while the car is on autopilot then it's basically useless -- I might as well drive the car just for the stimulation.

If/When it's good enough that I can sleep during a long highway trip (and pull into the last rest stop before my exit if I don't wake up) then I'll be happy.

[rebuilder]

Forget parking, the cars would be driving, ferrying people and goods around, as much as possible when not charging. No need to own one, just hail one when you need a ride.

[kalleboo]

It will be interesting to see how people take to not owning cars. People like customizing their spaces, and I can see people with young children not wanting to deal with all that setup multiple times a day...

[bb611]

That's practical, and for people like you and me who aren't bothered by the idea of not owning our own vehicle, but it's very culturally desirable in the US to own a personal vehicle. Not an unsolvable problem, but it will definitely be a bump in the road.

[zobzu]

i don't think its an issue. live in the city? dont own a car. just like today. uber is way cheaper than owing a car.

live in the gonnies? own a car. hailing one would take forever. having cars near you in the gonnies,that you dont own wouldn't be economical.

basically, there would be less vehicule owners but not that many less.

[Matt3o12_]

It shows that the car would have been able to drive the route completely without a driver. This is handy if you want to pickup somebody, want to avoid high parking fees, need to charge your car without actually doing it.

Doing those things right now in a Tesla is probably not safe just now, but it shows that level 5 autonomy is not so far fetched and 2020 is a realistic date.

[inimino]

On that particular day, under favorable conditions. There's a lot of work between 80% and 100%. Showing the 80% doesn't show anything about how long the last 20% will take.

[davewritescode]

There's virtually zero chance we'all have level 5 autonomy within 3 years.

The tech is impressive but it has to be absolutely bulletproof. I like Tesla but I find it annoying that Musk doesn't deliver anything on time and it seems like Tesla delivers way more demos than real products.

[Qworg]

It is so important to do the whole trip because switching costs for the driver from "totally inattentive" to "grasping the wheel and driving" are measured in seconds.

Anything less than 4 is asking for trouble.

[mac01021]

Do you assume that the car, after recognizing that human intervention is required, continues to move forward into the path of danger while it waits for the human to take over?

[Qworg]

I assume that there are a huge number of situations where "quietly pull over and let the human drive" is impossible.

I'm not talking about "oh hey, here's a situation I can't handle" and more "take over now".

[Animats]

Volvo takes the position for their 2017 that they cannot demand that the driver take over. The car can ask, but must be prepared to pull over and stop if the driver doesn't push the "Manual Drive" button.

Here's the first of 100 self-driving cars Volvo will put in customer hands in 2017.[1] This shows close-ups of all the sensors - high radar and camera behind the windscreen, low LIDAR and camera in the nose, and side and down-looking cameras on the door mirrors. No high-mounted LIDAR, though. These vehicles are intended for self-driving in all weather conditions in Gothenburg, Sweden.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwcSeRE-XEY

[em3rgent0rdr]

maybe your driving behavior is different from other people. I live in a city and do about half time on city streets and half time on highways. Anyway, consistent performance on all parts of the trip is needed to convince buyers.

[kalleboo]

> needed to convince buyers

Buyers were convinced by "cruise control", which just (barely) keeps a set speed.

[TeMPOraL]

s/convince buyers/avoid mass accidents caused by drivers becoming even less attentive than they're now/. Cruise control doesn't cause that, but a "90% there" self-driving solution will.

[kalleboo]

Certainly. That's a completely unrelated debate though.

[heisenbit]

You don't mind.

However statistics say that most of the accidents happen at the beginning or towards the end of the trip. There are environmental reasons (city vs. sub-urbs vs. cross-country) and there are human reasons.

[em3rgent0rdr]

A real convincing promo video would be in stormy weather with angry, unpredictable drivers and random jaywalking kids.

[DanielBMarkham]

Agreed. Throw in some fog, high-speed stop-and-go interstate fun, and moving from the interstate into a crowded city full of people jaywalking and running stoplights trying to get to where they're going.

[inimino]

Throw in some electric scooters diving in and out, bicycles, crazy couriers, cars parked on the road, someone pushing a hand-cart, an ambulance, and at least one of each of these kinds of vehicles going the wrong way and disregarding all traffic laws.

Or, as we call it in China, "driving".

[visarga]

Can we use a game environment to artificially synthesize scenarios? I don't know if there are any that can generate realistic video.

[aaossa]

A few months ago I red about researchers using GTA V to train some self driving algorithms. I googled it and it looks good

[codecamper]

yes. If Tesla really wants a good test, try autopilot in Morocco!

all at once: moped taking over from the right, in a round about, truck entering the roundabout without slowing down. donkey & cart on the side. woo hoo!

[jasonlingx]

And inevitably the AI will still be/become faster and safer than humans.

[DanielBMarkham]

Absolutely yes. I can't wait for that day. We'll end up saving more lives per year than if we somehow banished war, at least in industrialized countries.

What's weird is the period we're entering, where the technology is becoming more and more capable, but we're still a very long ways away from full auto. Yet the hype machine says it's just around the corner. I'm betting we're still 10-15 years out. So how do we handle situations where the driver has to pay a little attention, but not that much? In airplanes, this has been a very dangerous area -- and things in airplanes usually happen much, much slower than they do in traffic.

[TeMPOraL]

> What's weird is the period we're entering, where the technology is becoming more and more capable, but we're still a very long ways away from full auto. Yet the hype machine says it's just around the corner.

I think it would be worthwhile to figure out how to shut down the hype machine, or at least tune it down a few notches. Dreams and visions are fine, but every time I switch the current tab from HN to Facebook, I get to see overhyped bullshit predictions about AI, nanotech, self-driving cars, etc. being just about the corner, as evidenced by whatever misinterpreted paper or video news sites could find that day. And the non-tech crowd is totally buying that. Not just regular folks, but also investors and politicians and all the other people who then end up causing resources to be wasted because they buy into the bullshit.

[TeMPOraL]

Well, give them time :). Maybe they can use this video to leverage the generated PR into getting themselves allowed to shoot the next video at more difficult conditions :).

[chestervonwinch]

Tallahassee, FL in the summer would be perfect: heavy rain storms daily, college students everywhere, and everyone drives with a supreme sense of arrogance!

[SCdF]

I was wondering if stopping for the joggers was more of a bug than a feature. I don't drive much, so I'm definitely not an expert about what is best in that situation, but I would have drifted over the middle line to give them a nice berth and kept going.

[celticninja]

As a cyclist that was nice to see.