[amelius]

No singularity?

[simonh]

We don't even have a vague outline of a guiding principle of a theory for what general purpose 'strong' intelligence actually is, let alone a road map to achieving anything like it. So no, probably not.

I have a theory that on a long-term universal scale of general intelligence, humans are unbelievably stupid. What is the absolute minimum, basement level of general intelligence necessary to develop a material technology? That's what we have, because we've only just managed it. Seems obvious, doesn't it? Yet why doesn't everybody intuitively realize this? Why did it take me 50 years to work it out? ...Exactly.

[sgift]

Would be a pretty short and boring prediction. Individual predictions for specific areas are far more interesting.

[ivraatiems]

It's always 20 years away.

[notahacker]

And will be 20 years away in 2076, like it was in 1976 and (in its previous incarnation as millenialist religious beliefs) 1876 and 76BC

At least human predictions about the future are relatively predictable.