[sambe]

I think the gap between 1) and 2) for adults is gigantic, because of the issues I mentioned. I don't think you've really addressed the complexity of all the stuff surrounding programming.

I don't doubt there are long lists of links to starting programming, as there are for every conceivable subject (also "go to school" doesn't work for the disadvantaged/developing countries).

The point is keeping someone's enthusiasm alive and making good use of their time. In the "golden age" you would see, say, Space Invaders, and it would be within your ability (even as a teenager) to reproduce it, starting from the BASIC prompt and short manual that came with your computer. If you want someone to work efficiently now, on the things they want to work on (fun/visual/relevant to their life), they need to learn a lot more to get started. That's an improvement over the past in many ways, because it was simply not possible to work as efficiently then (e.g. no high-quality libraries, only basic line editing). In a way, people want more and can do more. But planning how to get there is harder.