[tristanj]

I think it did work. The Clinton camp uses internal polls which are much more accurate than public ones. These don't have the 1-2 week lag that the public polls do. The Trump campaign has its own internal polls too. From what I've read, the Trump campaign's internal polls found Clinton support in the Midwest collapsed 1.5 weeks before the election. From how they reacted it sure looks like the Clinton camp knew this too. The Clinton camp suddenly went all out: surprise rallies in Michigan and Pennsylvania; surprise concerts with Jay Z, Madonna, Lady Gaga; even drafting Obama to do daily rallies in November. Obama held twice as many rallies in November than he did in all of October.

The way I view it the Clinton camp knew they were in serious trouble and reacted accordingly.

[WillPostForFood]

She was also campaigning in Arizona the week before the election, a state that would be really hard to win, and not campaigning in Wisconsin, where she had a chance. So not sure they did have the best picture of what was going on, or at least didn't respond to it.

[fullshark]

She may have figured Wisconsin wasn't the front. Michigan and Pennsylvania were. I.e. if she lost Wisconsin she lost those two as well.

[taurath]

So we can put the outcome of the election squarely on FBI director Comey then?

Do you have a source for the internal poll collapse 1.5 weeks before the election?

[rfrank]

Or, ya know, Hillary Clinton and the DNC.

[taurath]

If the collapse on the most correct polls happened at that time, then could it not be seen as an election swinging event? Not saying Hillary Clinton and/or the DNC are not responsible for being weak enough to be able to be routed, but its an example of... well, the FBI significantly turning an election.

[rfrank]

By that point Wikileaks had also been releasing Podesta emails for about a month. It's an example of Clinton's terrible decisions re: the email server turning an election.

[fixxer]

My sources tell me internal polls were terrible too.

[kafkaesq]

Details?

[fixxer]

Nope. Just asked "hey, how fucked were your polls?" Answer: "totally." Didn't want to push it more than that given the fresh wound.

Edit: My hypothesis is the likely voter estimates were pure fiction.

[kafkaesq]

Quite revealing. Thanks for the data point.

[fixxer]

Lol. My pleasure.