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by zzalpha 3513 days ago
If the results had been different, our prediction would have been correct.

First, that comment is about the polls, not their model.

Second, it's called a polling error. It's actually a thing.

This election happened to be extremely sensitive to polling errors due to the nature of the electoral college and the fact that a number of key races were extremely tight.

When an average poll has a 3% margin of error, and you factor in state-level correlations (and the fact that the state level polls tend to have more variable quality than national polls), a slight error results in a huge swing.

Which is the entire point they're making, if you're willing to set aside the snark and read what they wrote (since it's actually, you know, interesting and informative).