[yaks_hairbrush]

A lot of comments here are referencing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). If it ever comes to fruition, it would be a rather clever hack to get around needing a constitutional amendment to change/abolish the electoral college.

Don't get too optimistic about it going places, though. We've got three types of states these days: red states, swing states, and blue states. Let's look at incentives:

Blue states are the only ones to go for NPVIC so far, and it's easy to see the incentive: Blue states have twice in the last 20 years seen their candidate get more votes than the other and lose anyway. So far, blue states have contributed 165 electoral votes to the effort, and could maybe contribute another 17 or so (CT, OR, DE).

Swing states are not incentivized to go for NPVIC. Presidential campaigns bring lots of money to swing states. Swing states have contributed 0 EVs so far, and according to Wikipedia three such states are considering it: AZ, PA, MI. I expect each of these to fail. It would be big news if any succeeded.

Red states: They've seen their preferred candidate win while getting outvoted twice in the last 20 years. They currently see the NPVIC as Democrats asking for a rule-change to make it easier for them to win. I could see red states start to go for this if a Republican loses while getting more votes. Until that happens, the red-state contribution to the NPVIC will at or near 0 EV.

[ubernostrum]

Imagine telling a Republican "hey, how would you like all those rural Republicans in California to have their vote actually count for once?" Right now there's close to no point for a CA Republican to vote for president, because the state's going for the Democrat no matter what they do. Same is true for many states which go for Democrats: outside of the major cities they have significant Republican populations, who are aware their votes don't matter but suddenly would under a popular-vote system.

[LeanderK]

if i read it right, its really clever but also not very nice to the other states.

For the NPVIC not every state has to join it, it comes active when the states that joined the NPVIC have a majority of the electors. Then the electors do not vote according to who won their state, but to who won overall. So if the democratic states and enough swing states all sign the NPVIC to get to 270 electors, they changed the rules of the game.

There is an realistic chance for it to succeed. I wouldn't give it 84% ;) But it's not impossible.

[yaks_hairbrush]

But where's the NPVIC going to get the 270 EVs from? The blue state contribution is just about maxed out, while swing and red states have no incentive to join it.

[joeclark77]

What's more: if the shoe were ever on the other foot, say if the popular vote went for the Republican but the electoral vote was due to the Democrat, there isn't a chance in the world that the blue states would keep their end of the bargain. They would immediately sue and block it. The NPVIC is only meant to be binding on red states, and everyone knows it.