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by crispyambulance 3510 days ago
Yep, hindsight is 20/20, and now people are going to come out of the woodwork explain how "inevitable" a Trump victory was.

The fact is there was always a margin for error and probabilities involved here. Clinton having an 89% chance of winning did not predict a victory. Also, we obviously don't have a model for how many democrats are going to sit on their asses and not vote in any given election.

Looking back, the thing that signaled something weird was going on was the fact that Trump could say literally any offensive dumb-ass idea, roil the media and all his opponents, and come out unscathed or even stronger. He did this a dozen times or more throughout the campaign. I suspect that really understanding that dynamic will explain how Trump won.

1 comments

Okay. As a Trump supporter, I'll help you to understand. Which part were you confused about?

>...the fact that Trump could say literally any offensive dumb-ass idea...

Okay. You're gonna have to be more specific than that. Which idea did you thought was dumb?

I think you'll find out soon enough.