[losvedir]

> winning that would bring about the biggest amount of disruption and change

This is an interesting point. I've toyed with the notion lately that maybe the American political system is "antifragile"[0]. It's plausible, at least, to me that the system as a whole is stronger when it receives major shocks that disrupt the ossified structure in there. If you have the same politicians with the same policies as normal, then you get ties between the government and industry, and handouts and a ruling elite, etc. Now I don't think Trump is all that much of an outsider or has that much chance of disruption here (I voted Johnson, partly in this hope), but it's interesting to me you raise it as a reason.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile

[tcoppi]

I think there is probably some truth to the antifragile theory, but we should remember that the system is made up of individual people and their choices to act within that system. Too many rogue players and there is no system.