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by ceterum_censeo 3507 days ago
> Not only has Tesla created the greatest external challenge to the German auto industry that I can think of.

The greatest challenge they faced is one they still face: the Japanese auto manufacturers. Toyota remains unbeatable on quality; the pursuit of Toyota is claimed as an element of VW's recent fall from grace. At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume (current and planned) or quality.

> I believe one of VW, Mercedes Benz and BMW will bankrupt in 5-10 years. None of them have taken EV serious yet and I fear it's soon too late.

Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US. The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design. The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/extremeMPG.jsp (e: and the i series are likely produced under a more efficient and sustainable production process, but it's hard to find a single link in support of this claim)

> Both are still concept cars but they represent what they expect their EVs should look like.

They are concepts, and so are explorations of design elements, features, etc. DFM changes the design significantly, even if one tries to keep to the concept.

> How are the Germans going to catch up?

They already have, they are just much more conservative in releasing their products because of earned experience. e: When the demand is present, the Germans and other incumbent manufacturers will be ready. This article reflects Tesla playing catchup with respect to automation, something the incumbents have already figured out.

2 comments

Toyota ought to be the big threat. But their management made a terrible mistake. They went for a car powered by hydrogen.

This is a real car, the Toyota Mirai.[1] You can buy one right now in California. They've sold about 700 cars. $57,500, including 3 years of hydrogen fill-ups. 312 mile range. 5 minutes to refuel, not including the drive to one of the few hydrogen stations.

Here's the only hydrogen station near San Francisco, on S. Airport Blvd.[2] Hydrogen stations are subsidized by the State of California through 2023, unless somebody stops that. (Remember Arnold and the hydrogen-powered Hummer?)

[1] https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html [2] https://www.google.com/maps/@37.6481529,-122.4056447,3a,42.5...

Is it really a mistake? I'm under the impression that automakers pursue FCVs because of the government incentives. I would think that a portion of the R&D could support other alternative fuel vehicle systems, so even if FCVs aren't the future (and it doesn't seem so) it perhaps isn't necessarily a mistake to investigate them if it's incentivized.
0 to 60 in 9.2 seconds. That is a deal killer for $50,000+ cars usually.
> At this point Tesla is barely a blip on the radar in comparison considering volume

They're far more than a blip. They are easily outselling their Japanese and German competition in their segment. Luxury cars.

> Daimler took it seriously enough to invest in Tesla, and to use Tesla as a supplier in their own B-class EV sold in the US.

They did. However, they still do not have an EV sedan or SUV in the market.

> The BMW i series feature some pretty innovative thinking with respect to construction, materials, and design.

It does. However, they still do not have an EV sedan or SUV in the market.

> The payoff is that the BMW i3 is the most efficient EPA-certified vehicle, more efficient than any of Tesla's models

Because it's tiny. It's like a clown car.

The simple fact is that the Germans know if they put out an EV sedan or SUV, they will cannibalize their own market share and their investments in combustion engine manufacturing, which are massive, will be lost. They are trying to slowly transition to EV. Tesla is using that to their advantage and eroding their market share.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/01/US-luxury-car-sales-...

That was last year. This year is going to be worse for them.

That sales comparison you're using is based on the assumption that the Model S competes with large luxury cars, and it ignores the overlap between similar models (e.g., S-class and CLS). On features and price however, the Model S more closely competes with midsize luxury cars. I think the Model S is unique and looking at either large or midsize comparibles alone isn't informative, but I think it's closer to midsize than large.

The i3 is efficient not because it is tiny, but because it is light weight. Weight reduction is hard and it is a lesson Tesla has yet to learn.

> The simple fact is that the Germans know if they put out an EV sedan or SUV, they will cannibalize their own market share and their investments in combustion engine manufacturing, which are massive, will be lost.

They haven't put out an EV sedan or SUV yet because the market isn't profitable yet. The trend for engines has long been towards becoming a commodity sourced from elsewhere and tuned in-house or a scalable design, i.e., except for models where the engine is a selling point you're not investing your money in engines. As to cannibalizing their own sales, I don't understand your point.

Strong weight reduction and safety are very hard together. You can have either one or the other, rarely both.
"It's like a clown car."

Out of interest, are you the in the US? As I don't think the i3 is that small in the context of car sizes in other markets.

NB I also think it looks rather cute - but I've vowed never to buy another BMW.

I agree with you, that is not a tiny clown car. For the first time seeing it on photos I thought the same, but when you put it next to other cars, it looks surprisingly big (however, I have never tried it if its interior is also so roomy as it looks like):

i3 vs BMW 1 coupe: http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/i3-active-e....

i3 vs Mercedes B class: http://assets.inhabitat.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/201...

i3 vs Chevy Volt: http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/IMG_20140817...

i3 vs Tesla Model S: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-po2qhio3MHg/U-PtBsekEMI/AAAAAAAAFx...

I tried the i3. It has nice acceleration. Inside it's about the same size as a BMW 3 series.

It is very ugly, however. The mix of materials used... yuck!

Its smaller than a 3 series, it only seats 4, and the trunk is smaller.