[WWKong]

The lottery example is fantastic to explain the misplaced expectation of startups. Indeed if we take a results of lottery winners (Jobs, Gates, Musk etc.) and work backwards on how they got rich, it will point to, "aggressively play lottery".

[hellogoodbyeeee]

Right, but at the same time every lottery winner purchased a lottery ticket. If you just say "survivorship bias" and never buy a lottery ticket then you will never win the lottery. My personal goal in life is to play the (metaphorical) lottery as much as I can, within reason. E.g. I'm not mortgaging my house to throw money after my buddy's 'Uber for Planting trees' idea.

[M_Grey]

Play the lottery, but accept that you could do so for thousands of lifetimes before you win, and unfortunately, you only get the one lifetime.