[jk4930]

It's certainly based on empirical data, projections, and some model assumptions.

Urbanization: its drivers (jobs or other opportunities) and consequences (growth faster than the infrastructure or social structure can catch up), the demographic composition (a youth bulge with terrible consequences), the potential conflicts between ethnic and ideological groups etc., all that is known from what we observed so far and can be projected 15 years into the future.

Increasing complexity is a concern. But scale is the real killer. Who has the corresponding means to manage such numbers? They mentioned 100,000 of (potentially) revolting inhabitants in a city of 10 million (1%) as an example. How do you control them? Complexity means things become more opaque and surprising, uprisings have more hidden resources and connections, the criminal and other networks are harder to detect and contain.

Anyone interested in this challenge?