[andrepd]

Absolutely irrelevant and ridiculous comparison. On what basis did you come up with those numbers? 10% of the world's money supply?? Why??

Let's do something more reasonable, which least is approximately in the order of magnitude. The BTC market cap is ~$10bil. 1% of that is 100 million dollars. Which means that if Zcash ever becomes more valuable than the phenomenon that was bitcoin, you have a 100 million dollar stake for the founders. A pretty penny, but still a far cry from your ridiculous half a trillion.

[vegabook]

Firstly I did not say half a trillion. I estimated that the kind of investor who will buy into zcash has to believe in crypto upside, and I assumed 10% crypto share of global money supply over time. IE 5 trillion. Second I said, along the same lines, that to buy zcash you have to believe in an upside scenario of 10% of crypto market share for zcash. 500 billion. 10% of that is 50 yards. Does that sounds reasonable to you? You have said 100 million is reasonable. I say you're right. But that's not the pitch here.

The pitch is that zcash will "uplift millions of people". As per your numbers, you're saying 2e-06 proportion of global money. Can you see the disjoint between the ambition pitched and the (entirely reasonable) numbers that you cite? They're pitching a game change ("zcash begins") and you're saying their target is 2 in every 1 million dollars of global cash?? Come on. If that's true, fine, 10%. But that is not "uplifting millions of people" and this is not "Zcash Begins", biblical style.

What we have here is an unfeasibly large founder's share in the case of success, and this unreasonableness is precisely the signal that indicates that they do not believe in long term success, themselves. Therefore we have a credibility problem.

TL;DR: If they had 1% founders share, they'd have a shot. At 10%, they're doomed to failure. 1% of something or 10% of nothing.