[jgalt212]

> The most accurate simulation of the human brain ever has been carried out, but a single second’s worth of activity took one of the world’s largest supercomputers 40 minutes to calculate.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10567942/Supercomputer...

The above supercomputer in 2014 was 2400X slower than the human brain. Moore's law is dead so I think your 10000X and 2030 estimates are grossly optimistic.

[greggman]

If you applied your logic to DNA sequencing. The first DNA sequencing took ages and by various estimates at the time it would have taking 100+ years to fully sequence DNA. Fortunately exponential progress doesn't work that way and full DNA sequencing happened orders of magnitude sooner than those pessimistic estimates.

I see no reason to believe A.I. will be any different. But then I don't believe Moore's law is dead. We'll find other ways to extend it. Insert magic here.

http://michaelgalloy.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/cpu-vs-g...

[mattmanser]

But, but, Quantum computing.

Jazz hands