[d33]

Related to this topic: someone (Derbasti) once recommended me [1] "Thinking: Fast and Slow" by economy Nobel-winning Kahneman. This is a book about dozens of ways humans fail to reason properly and a huge part of this book addresses the problem of heuristics we use to estimate risk, probability, costs... absolutely a must-read.

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11555148