[mixologic]

Which is why thats an awful gauge of the electorate. The vast majority of voters do not attend political events, and "attendees at events" is really just an uncorrelated measure of "enthusiasm for a candidate amongst their base". If 40% of the country loved him so much that they all showed up at every single rally, yet the other 60% hate him, and will vote for HRC despite not really loving her, then you see a rally filled to the brim with Trump supporters, and nobody at hers, yet his chances are zip. Rally attendance is a meaningless metric.

[2AF3]

It might not be great, but I trust it more than these dishonest polls

[rconti]

I'm sorry, but offhandedly dismissing "these dishonest polls", when, frankly,

1. They're the best data we have

2. We have no reason to believe they're incorrect

3. There is REALLY no reason to believe they're dishonest

Is 100% intellectually dishonest.

This is exactly what happened 4 years ago, and apparently some people have not learned from their tremendous mistake.

If you want to know why "turnout at a campaign event" is a crappier metric than "real actual scientific data", I don't know how else to help, other than to point to other instances in which it has failed:

"Mitt drawing larger crowds" http://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/mitt-drawing-larger-cr...

"Donald Trump continues to draw YUGE crowds. That matters less than he thinks." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/28/do...

"Trump brags about crowd size but will it turn into votes?" http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d74fbd472f7a420a90737e55cfb20...

I do not know or care who you support in the Presidential election. However, I suggest you get realistic about your metrics, as you're way off in fantasyland at the moment, as far as I can tell.

If you turn out to be incorrect, I hope you learn from this experience. I know I will, if the data turns out to be wrong.

[2AF3]

I'm in fantasy land? If you think the polls aren't manipulated for political advantage you are in fantasy land. You're appeal to 'real scientific data' is childish, since the data can be easy manipulated.

[fmihaila]

And yet, Trump supporters never had any trouble believing the polls when they showed their candidate leading during the primaries. Every single time, Trump would open his rallies with "have you seen the latest polls?".

When the polls show him to be ahead, it's evidence that the voters love him. When he's behind, it's evidence that the polling is rigged.

[2AF3]

Hillary Lead Over Trump Surges After Reuters "Tweaks" Poll http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-30/clinton-lead-over-t...

[rconti]

All of my comments stand.

Campaigns also conduct their own internal polling which may or may not have biases, but they're not released; they're used for the campaign. So it only benefits them to know what's actually going on. Trump's is one of the few campaigns that seems only interested in good news, and in not learning from what their internal polling tells them.

That said, of course all campaigns will selectively brag about the polls that make them look good, and quietly ignore those that don't.

Again, the polls are extremely reliable in this country. If you can't see that, you're unlikely to be swayed by yet another data point when this election is complete.

[ivv]

Bernie is a good counter-example. Huge rallies, way behind in votes.

[gallonofmilk]

have you not read wikileaks? the DNC/Hillary rigged it against him from day one, he never stood a chance

[acdha]

Clearly you haven't read those emails: they show nothing of the sort, which is why you couldn't provide any evidence to back that claim.

You can find signs that people in the establishment personally favored the establishment candidate – the least surprising revelation in political history – but there's no evidence that lead to any concrete action. That's why the only claims of rigging have been intentional misrepresentation based on the knowledge that some people like you would repeat those claims without checking the sources.

[_cbb1]

When you have Donna Brazile feeding the Clinton campaign townhall questions so that she can prepare the answers. Threats for super delegates switching to Bernie and Debbie Wasserman Shultz stepping down. It's clear evidence of a rigged election. Who knows what was happening that is not in the emails.

[acdha]

Try citing specific ptimsry sources for events which actually happened. There's plenty of hyperventilating and outright propaganda on right-wing blogs but there's a reason why nobody with credibility is claiming the primary was rigged.

Hint: it's the same reason why the alleged victim is going around telling his supporters to vote for Hillary. If you trusted his judgement enough to think he should be president, why not trust his analysis now?

[CamperBob2]

Except Bernie's rallies were full of young people, who are always up for a rally but who can seldom be bothered to vote. Meanwhile, Trump's rallies are full of old people who have nothing else to do but vote.