[rconti]

On matters of opinion, ABSOLUTELY. On matters of polling, absolutely false. Even Brexit was predicted by the polls, it just didn't happen until a week before the vote. (It's worth noting, of course, the same could happen here. And that's probably what Thiel is counting on).

[1337biz]

Where do you see the Brexit predicted by the polls?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United...

Seems to not support that claim.

[threeseed]

Exactly there is a big myth going around that polls never predicted Brexit when in fact they absolutely did. People just didn't want to believe them.

Polls are objective not subjective.

[kybernetikos]

Can you provide some links about the Brexit polls? I was following the betting markets and the prediction markets and they were dramatically wrong, even the day of the vote.

[rconti]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-ov...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36648769

[notatoad]

>Polls are objective not subjective.

I get what you're trying to say, and most polling seems to be pretty objective, but you can absolutely do subjective polling. You just have to target the right demo and you can make any poll say anything you want.

[internaut]

With Brexit the reporting of what was going on was dodgy, even the leader of UKIP thought he'd failed. The bookies had Remain at something like .90 probability.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/bookies-pl...

[marincounty]

This is different.

Just say you were going to vote for Trump. Someone stops you on the street, or call you up; would you admit it?

I wouldn't.

The guy is an absolute joke of a person on so many levels. He's stupid. He's just aweful.

But there's a tiny bit of Trump in a lot of us buried deep in that ID.

Personally, I do think we need to get much more vigilant on immigration, even though Obama has sent more illegials home than any other president. Would I admit this in public--hell no.

And I have never believed in Globilization. Would I admit this at work--hell no.

I really think a lot of people will vote for Trump in the privacy of that booth.

I won't because I won't vote for a president this year, or will I?

[rdtsc]

> I really think a lot of people will vote for Trump in the privacy of that booth.

I think so too. There is an interesting phenomenon there. Just guessing but suspect on the surface it is a very accepting, liberal place, perhaps one which encourages and celebrates diversity.

[enraged_camel]

>>even though Obama has sent more illegials home than any other president

Where can I find the source for this? I may need it when arguing with people...

[m52go]

"The Deportation Machine Obama Built for President Trump"

https://www.thenation.com/article/the-deportation-machine-ob...

[rconti]

Well, we know that net migration flows to Mexico (and possibly all of central america?) are positive. They turned from inflows to outflows during the recession. Perhaps this is where someone came up with "Obama sending illegals home".

Of course, I'm more than open to being wrong; certain classes of illegal immigrants have been given defacto amnesty, and Obama's spoken in their favor, but no doubt others continue to be persecuted.

[forgetsusername]

>And I have never believed in Globilization

Sorry to tell you, data is in, and it's helping to pull billions out of abject poverty around the globe.

[douche]

Depends on whether you care about the billions of people around the world or the millions in your own corner of it. I'm not sure most people are really ready to take in that expansive view of who their tribe is yet.