[internaut]

Stopped no. Stagnated, yes.

I've made at least a dozen posts explaining the Stagnation Hypothesis, there's a long list of people in Silicon Valley who take it seriously. The basic idea is that since '73 the rate of change has slowed down. This excludes computation of course. It is an explanation for present day economic stresses in the West that I believe hangs together far better than the mainstream theories that get news headlines.

[JBlue42]

What happened in 1973 to cause this to kickoff?

[someguydave]

The sixties happened.

[internaut]

I suspect two connected factors.

The first is economic. Look at this graph:

http://www.prep-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/oil-pric...

We are paying exponentially more for energy than our grandparents even when the prices plateau.

That acts as a halter on the whole economy because clever young men and women can't get their gig together and do something different to their parents.

Anecdotally I know I'm poorer than my parents, despite achieving things they never did such as successful stock market investing, elite university and winning science prizes. The truth is that if I worked a min wage job from 16 to my present age I'd be rather more well off. This realization is going to occur to more people over time, which means we're going backward. Remember that former civilizations have gone from mostly literate to mostly illiterate, and this is how it happens. It is a sort of creeping thing. It does not get headlines except incidentally as the symptoms develop.

The second is cultural. It is worth taking seriously but also with a grain of salt at the same time.

This harder to prove empirically but society in the West went under a change around the time of the oil shocks. Today this is change is represented as progress when it may be sign of the opposite. It is political dysfunction caused by wrongheaded cultural ideals. After all, if you have the wrong idea and there is no feedback telling you you're wrong, it takes a while for the consequences to catch up.

This concern with battery technology (very poor results) and renewable technology (mixed results) while completely ignoring the source of energy (fusion and fission). Very curious.

This concern with the evils of colonization in Africa, but a complete neglect of the stagnation it sank into after the colonizers left it. The richest states are now failed states on any objective metric but this is not acknowledged. Curious and curiousness.

This concern with this nebulous outside threat of 'terror' while our infrastructure is crumbling. Roads with potholes, poisoned water, falling bridges. Curious and curiouser!

These are all classic signs of a civilization in decline. Bemoaning the past wrongs while ignoring present problems while the barbarians sneak around the peripheral as they sense weakness. Ignoring reports from the outlaying provinces. It is just classical. The Roman empire had a lot of high technology just before the lights went out. Not many people realize that.

There is a list of people in Silicon Valley as long as your arm, in fact it might be most of the people who own or run the corporations and institutes believe in some version of this. If you're interested in finding out more from their perspective I'll provide a list of sources.

I know very well the newspapers don't believe in this. But journalists have short attention spans. I know that most of the middle class believe we're 'progressing', but they take their opinions from opinion forming organs. They all think the same things and are synchronized by mass media. The Internet of course has shaken this up, or I wouldn't have the views I hold today.

Ask those people to name a single technology outside of computing in the past 30-40 years. I repeat: outside of computation. Electronics, AI, robotics are out.

They exist, but it's not very convincing because most of them have not had serious qualitative and quantitative effects. I like that solar has improved in performance and price, yet my island nation imports 98% of its electricity from a power with nuclear stations. It claims by the way, to be a nuclear-free zone. It is a curious tying together of the economical and culture failings.

[JBlue42]

Thanks for the reply.

I know that in the 70s (I was born in 83 so only know from history) the oil crisis occurred but I've never really grasped the that one moment in time (vs any of the other tumultuous ones in the 20th century) has led to economic issues of today. I'm guessing Nixon's visit to China, opening up that economic gateway, and other movements of that time led to globalization and lot of issues we're coping with now. Usually it's the chart for wage stagnation that befuddles me most about those years - why did that start then?

Questioning out loud here but curious for any sources/reading.

[internaut]

> Questioning out loud here but curious for any sources/reading.

Sure. I'll practically throw the book at you.

An essay to read on the subject by Neal Stephenson, the author of The Diamond Age and Snowcrash.

http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/fall2011/innovation-starv...

Startup founder and venture capitalist Peter Thiel on stagnation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMpmfaE9bII

Put your thinking hat on stuff and it just gets 120 views which is horrible. Of all the things I'm posting this is the one you really need to pay attention to.

Tyler Cowen, economist, well known marginalrevolution blog:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIHGOo7OC8c

Another economist Robert Gordon has made this subject his life's work, it's a monster of a book if you want to dive deeply:

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10544.html

Bill Gate's review: http://qz.com/742686/bill-gates-recommends-this-economics-bo...

I believe Elon Musk (who started Paypal with Thiel) started SpaceX and Teslamotors partly because he agrees with the hypothesis and thinks it quite likely. If you think of it the last visit to the moon took place half a century ago and there hadn't been a new motor company in America since '56.

[JBlue42]

Excellent. Thanks!