[moserware]

The author, Robin Hanson, has done some really great work in prediction markets. One of his papers directly led to the founding of Inkling Markets (YC06).

I sort of get the feeling that this article was indirectly referring to his involvement in the very creative, but highly politicized "Policy Analysis Market" which was a DARPA sponsored prediction market that might have included trading on topics such "a missile attack by North Korea" or "the overthrow of the king of Jordan."

Given how that went down, this article makes much more sense.

Details at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Policy_Analysis_Market

[kes]

I knew that I recognized his name. He writes http://overcomingbias.com/ which, along with http://lesswrong.com/ keeps me making sense.

(Both are worth reading regularly.)