[KirinDave]

> Given their numbers I wonder if the expected should have been closer to 7x and the worst case at 20-25x.

What numbers? We know that their estimates and their realities were quite different, but not knowing the real numbers we have no way of even beginning to judge what's reasonable and unreasonable here. For all we know, they modeled directly after the most successful game in the Android market at that date as a baseline and then said, "At the worst case we'd expect 5x THAT."

You can write a ton of paragraphs about how cute Pokemon are, but the truth is that the Pokemon AR game was a massive risk. AR games have had extremely limited update. It seems incredibly unreasonable for me to expect that those folks should have realized apriori that they were about to release the most popular mobile game ever created.

I, for one, will not throw stones. I don't get why you feel the need to assert that you (or anyone) could have done a better job by setting a 20x or 25x target. Or that you could have not only forseen it was necessary, but convince everyone around you that the capex was justified.

Why are you so keen on assigning blame and shame in this scenario? Some of our peers made history. Can we be happy for them for 6 months before immediately backseat driving about how much better we all are in our armchairs?