[xapata]

> promotions don't buy their way out

I'm not talking about a give-away. A prepay program is similar to an airline loyalty program. Delta can charge me higher ticket fares than a competing airline on the same route, because it's good for me to consolidate my "miles" with one airline. Now that I'm "elite" they can manipulate my ego and get me to pay more so I have a chance at a "free" upgrade to a fancy seat.

If Uber can convince me to prepay, they don't need to compete on price or wait time for the rest of the month. It only needs to be a good enough value to convince me to prepay again the next month.

Going back to the airlines, that industry is quite similar to Uber's. Sure, there's the capital investment in airplanes, but that can be financed with debt or equity. There's negotiating terminal space, but again, that's just money. No barrier to entry there either. Now, the airline industry is a good example of a place it's tough to make money. "How do you make a million bucks? Start with a billion and start an airline." But the airlines are still around. Not sure why Uber is different from Delta.

[ethanbond]

You really think starting an airline is as easy as starting an Uber competitor? Yeah I guess besides the gargantuan barrier to entry.

I've got a bridge to sell you.

No point in discussing this further, really.

[xapata]

You think running an Uber competitor is easier than running an airline? I've got a great investment for you...

If a barrier to entry is just financial, it's no barrier at all.

Let's think through the dynamics of the situation you describe. You say Uber is doomed because competition is too fierce. Yet you say the competitors are also doomed. Somebody will go bankrupt first. That will reduce competition and profits will go up. Maybe another competitor shows up and it's back to doomed. But then they go out of business, too. Eventually, people will stop entering this doomed industry and if Uber is still around, it'll start turning a profit. Every industry goes through times of competition and times of consolidation.