[gumby]

> They will just buy insurance, and the insurance companies will figure it out.

It's not that simple.

Yes, premiums will adjust depending on the finances of the carrier but the cost of insuring the risk itself is quite variable and can be ruinous. The value of a delayed shipment of iPads is much higher than a delayed shipment of board games, yet Apple can tolerate the former while the latter could sink a company. The board game company might not be able to afford to insure the risk, even though the premium could be lower.

The fact is an Apple can manage the risk by spreading the load (they already do it multi modally, and probably already do it for ships too). A small company with one container or less of goods, cannot.

[ghostly_s]

Doesn't Apple famously use overnight air for all their shipping needs? Or is that only for devices?

[gumby]

That's what I meant by "multi modal": they put most of it on ships but buy up enough air capacity to make the early deliveries. Once the ships start arriving they can abandon the air.

[ghostly_s]

Hmm, I've never heard this. All the coverage a few years back was that they use air for everything, so they can scale their production operations in near-real-time as demand fluctuates. That was supposed to be Tim Cook's whole crowning achievement when he was COO. Do you have a source that shows this has changed?

[rabidrat]

Maybe it will become cheaper for small board game companies to produce their games domestically, once shipping insurance is factored in.

[brian-armstrong]

You're talking about a change that takes years to complete, not something that will happen overnight. And production of any good requires some materials which quite likely will need to be shipped in anyway.