[tptacek]

Yes, this is true, but if that's what's happening, the Russians are holding him hostage.

You can simplify this whole point to:

Unless the Russians aren't benign --- in which case it's a very bad thing that Snowden is in Russia --- if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he'd be in Ecuador.

[ScottBurson]

> if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he'd be in Ecuador

I think this is very naïve. The US wanted him very badly, and we can throw our weight around pretty well. [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales_grounding_incident

[tptacek]

Could you better explain what you're trying to say here? How is it that the US can prevent Snowden from boarding a plane in Moscow?

[dragonwriter]

> How is it that the US can prevent Snowden from boarding a plane in Moscow?

The US can't prevent Snowden from boarding a plan in Moscow. (Well, I mean, there are all kinds of means by which it might attempt to do so, but no one in this thread has suggested that they would be likely to use them.)

It can, and would be far more likely to, OTOH, use its influence to a prevent a plane from Moscow from reaching Ecuador without being forced to the ground, searched for Snowden, etc., if Snowden did board it (or was suspected to have done so.)

Which is exactly what happened (except, of course, that Snowden had not actually boarded the plane, despite the US suspicion that he had, and that the destination was Bolivia, not Ecuador) in the Evo Morales grounding incident referenced upthread, so I'm somewhat surprised that you didn't understand the fairly direct implication.

[tptacek]

How would the US even know who was on a flight from Moscow? If you believe Assange, the reason for the Morales incident was that Assange leaked false information to make that happen.

Furthermore, what does any of this have to do with Snowden's suspended passport? The passport isn't what's keeping him in Russia. I think the two plausible things that might be are: (1) Snowden, (2) Russia. You think there's a third? Can you explain it in some detail?

[dragonwriter]

> How would the US even know who was on a flight from Moscow?

The US has foreign intelligence services, utilizing both human and technical means, and they attempt to monitor movements of persons who are of concern to the US, with varying degrees of success.

(The degree to which Snowden is still actively a concern to the US is a bit less clear.)

> If you believe Assange

I don't, particularly, but on this particular point his claim isn't implausible, and, more to the point, isn't materially relevant.

> the reason for the Morales incident was that Assange leaked false information to make that happen.

Sure, that might be what they US believed Snowden was on the plane. Of course, were the US not both able and inclined to stop even a foreign leader's plane from transitting unmolested from Russia to South America if Snowden was believed to be on it, Assange's false leak (assuming that is the source of the belief) would be immaterial. That they have the capacity and will, however, to take such acts is demonstrated by the Morales incident independently of the source of the false belief that Snowden was on the plane.

> Furthermore, what does any of this have to do with Snowden's suspended passport?

Nothing, I wasn't responding to a claim about a passport I was responding to the claim that if Snowden wanted to be in Ecuador, he would be in Ecuador, and there is nothing the US could do to stop him from simply boarding a plane in Moscow and flying to Ecuador.

Their manifestly is something the US could do, and has demonstrated both the ability and willingness to do, to stop him from doing that.

> The passport isn't what's keeping him in Russia. I think the two plausible things that might be are: (1) Snowden, (2) Russia. You think there's a third? Can you explain it in some detail?

The United States. And I think I've explained it in excruciating detail in this post, and my prior post in this subthread.

[tptacek]

The same logic suggests they could grab Snowden off the streets in Moscow.

[ScottBurson]

If Obama were to pardon Snowden, and the US reinstate his passport, I can't see Putin keeping him in Russia. Why would he do that? As long as Snowden is a thorn in the NSA's side, Putin is clearly glad to have him, but a pardon would neutralize the benefit. It's not even like he could trade Snowden for some Russian spies; what sense would that make? The US intelligence community does not think of Snowden as someone they want back on American soil, except maybe to kill him.

I found an interesting Assange interview on the Morales incident [0]. The whole thing is worth reading, but let me just quote one bit:

Portugal, Spain and France closed their airspace. Some other things happened. Some preemptive extradition requests were sent out, for example, to Iceland, which we got hold of and published. So there was — the U.S. was pressuring countries where flights might go through or land or refuel. And as a result of that operation, then it became clear that in fact it was too dangerous to — at that moment, at least, to take any flight out of Moscow. And this is what then led to his eventual asylum. It wasn’t just the removal of the passport, which removed his ability to use commercial flights. It was that the U.S. was closing airspace and acting in a manner where you would have to assume that they — you know, if a flight went past the United States — not over U.S. territory, but past the United States — there might be some kind of interdiction.

Assange goes on to suggest that Russia had their hands forced by the US Government's willingness to pull strings to catch Snowden, and by the willingness of Western Europe -- France, Portugal, and Spain, at least -- to roll over. This put Putin in the position of either granting Snowden's asylum request or looking like another US patsy. Well, the last thing Putin would ever do is look weak. (I suspect Putin is not really too unhappy to make sure Snowden stays alive.)

Anyway, although Putin's cooperation is clearly necessary, the primary force keeping Snowden in Russia is, and has always been, the US Government.

[0] http://www.democracynow.org/2015/5/28/assange_on_the_untold_...

[tptacek]

We're not talking about why Snowden isn't in the US. It's clear: the reason he's not here is that if he sets foot on American soil he will be arrested and prosecuted.

We're talking about why, of all the places he could be in the world, he's in Russia --- and not Ecuador, where he claims he intended to go.

[tedunangst]

They use the HAARP installation to control the weather and cause a catastrophic lightning strike on his plane. That's why he can't go outside.

[dtornabene]

What do you get out of these comments? There was a time when these were downvoted out of existence, not merely slightly grayed. I'm not particularly swayed by your technical competence either. I'd be willing to bet as well that if I downloaded your comment history I'd find at least half of your comments are snark like this.

[tedunangst]

Some people take things too seriously. I have little control over how they vote.