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by JonFish85
3570 days ago
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Why Uber? What do they really have, at the end of the day? They're one of several companies investing in driverless cars. They're competing with companies that have cash cows (e.g. Google and Apple) as well as companies with a century+ of car-making experience, from the ground up. Uber has a cool app and some name recognition. If/when self-driving cars are a thing, why does anyone need uber? GM/Ford/Toyota/whomever all make their own cars and will presumably make the cars of tomorrow. If not, Tesla would be a solid bet. Again, all companies that MAKE cars. Apple & Google are probably betting on their technology being better and licensing it to manufacturers. Why would Uber have a better shot at any of this than the other players? They have a slick app and have successfully found a grey area where they push most liability and upkeep costs onto their not-employees. In some markets, by some measure, maybe they're profitable. Now what? To get to $1T is either going to take a monumental shift in everything they've accomplished, or it's going to take some silly investors (or financial tricks). I'd say it's much more likely that in 15 years we look back at Uber as something closer to WebVan than they get a $1T market cap. |
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Tesla - Doesn't make nearly enough cars to even be considered in the same spectrum of any other of the players. Autonomous, great. Ride sharing/micro-logistics infrastructure? Not enough strength unfortunately.
GM/Ford/Toyota - Great, they've got cars, let's say those cars are autonomous. Now what about the logistics management that they've got zero experience in? Uber has serviced millions of rides and learned and learned from that. The tech is not enough, the experience/data is what counts imo.
Any company looking to just "jump in" because they've got money and a car, is going to get vaporized, unless they've got data and resources (Google being the only one that fits this mould imo).
Just how Facebook and Google got vaporized in the "daily deal" market. They had more access to the businesses, and more access to consumers than the daily deal sites ever could. Yet they struggled to find any kind of market share. Another example is Google Shopping.
Resources aren't the only thing needed, experience and processes. Which is why I say that Google is a threat, but if they're buying out Lyft. Otherwise, Google will potentially compete, but more than likely cater to a different segment than what Uber does.
Time will tell I suppose :) Definitely see what you're saying, but I just don't think you're focusing on the most valuable pieces of Ubers business.
Either way, we're very fortunate to even be in a position to discuss such cool stuff! Exciting for sure :)