[ci5er]

That's an interesting claim!

I will go see what I can see. As for a starting point, I'll probably dig around CB insights, pitchbook, angellist, and the Center for Venture Research at UNH (New Hampshire). Then go from there.

If you are right, that's a very very interesting result.

[logicallee]

all right! Definitely please don't include series A but personally I'm not sure whether I should consider kickstarter and co to be seed rounds - maybe? I am very curious about what you find in the sources you've already mentioned (without including series A rounds), though, and hope you will give an update!

[ci5er]

I hadn't even thought of including kickstarter-and-friends, partly because the companies aren't selling equity. I'm not including any sort of corporate spin-out either.

The lines have gotten so blurry compared to 20 years ago (entrepreneural creativity in action?), so sorting out the wheat and chaff is harder. More data - less definition.

[ci5er]

The thread is deep (as you say in this comment's sibling), so I will email the longer commentary...

Briefly, most of the published analysis is top-down and less is bottom-up. People seem to bundle Seed+Series-A in most places. There's a lot of talk about medians without a deal-count. There are counts for numbers of deals with a size exceeding some threshold, but that doesn't give us what we're looking for.

Here's a chart - US only: - https://files.pitchbook.com/images/Angel.Seed%20Activity.png

At about a thousand deals at about a million bucks, that's bumping the $1B mark, but doesn't break $2B.

[logicallee]

fair enough! I'll check this thread and see if you update it, if you do have time to look more :)

Also if you'd like you can email me at the address in my profile, this thread is getting nested very deep.