[mangeletti]

I'm going to make a prediction. This isn't going to be popular, and it's only my opinion and doesn't constitute advice:

This fund will not earn its investors a positive return.

[dsr_]

Not a great prediction unless you give a time window, too. 50% within a month? Six months? a year?

[tedmiston]

And the short term doesn't matter... 8–10 years, or whenever every company fails, sells, or IPOs.

[mangeletti]

Thanks. I simplified the statement.

[callmeed]

negative return is a thing

[mangeletti]

Thanks. I updated the comment.

[kapilkale]

Oh man, I'd take this bet!

Loser donates money to the winner's charity of choice. Pick an amount up to $200, and tweet @kapil so it's in the public record.

[mangeletti]

Hey, I got an HN Replies email before you changed it from $500 to $200... :)

Just kidding. Ok, let's do this. $200 it is, but you have to pick your charity now, and the timeframe for a return has to be sufficiently short such that $200 can still at least buy a mosquito net or something.

My charity choice is the US Treasury.

Also, HN is fine (my real name / twitter / github are in my profile).

P.S. You didn't ask why I thought it wouldn't return a profit. It's not because I disbelieve in your company (you guys have more startup data than just about anyone).

[a13n]

Why?