[Digory]

Right. The post links to slideshow "model" for counterfactuals given at Hulu. And I won't pretend to analyze it scientifically, but it's hard to shake the feeling that it's circular in this application.

We want to rank lawyers based on effect on outcome, not win-loss record. But it looks like the model is one that derives "counterfactual" outcomes by making comparisons based on win-loss records.

Can someone give a better lay-level discussion of the expected outcome model?