[Z1nfandel]

Their Navy will be closer than you think. Take a look at the rate they are building ships. Their destroyer squadrons (Luyang II and III are amazing ships) have been rapidly growing, as well as their replinishment ships, subs, frigates, and smaller boats. These DDGs and supply ships are the foundations of a CSG. You're right they only have one carrier at the moment, and its only used for training. But this is their modus operandi: Buy something already built, reverse engineer it, tailor to our needs, mass produce. They have 30 years to manufacture 10 more carriers (and associated ships) to reach the power project with the current US Navy. If they continue at their current rate, they will easily reach that.

I don't know where you're getting the notion that the Chinese navy doesn't compare to Japan, because its stronger/larger in every measurable way. Are you accounting for the 30+ ships the Chinese navy has been building every year recently? I would agree with that statement six years ago.

You are absolutely correct: The most interesting question is can they sustain their current output. Will the party hold up?