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by JumpCrisscross 3566 days ago
"We find that [Buffett's] alpha becomes insignificant when controlling for exposures to Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors. Further, we estimate that Buffett’s leverage is about 1.6-to-1 on average. Buffett’s returns appear to be neither luck nor magic, but, rather, reward for the use of leverage combined with a focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks. Decomposing Berkshires’ portfolio into ownership in publicly traded stocks versus wholly-owned private companies, we find that the former performs the best, suggesting that Buffett’s returns are more due to stock selection than to his effect on management."

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/pdf/Buffett's%20Alpha%20-%20...

2 comments

It can be easy with hindsight to say oh you should have just done Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk. It doesn't mean those strategies are going to win over the next decades.
Oh so all you've gotta do is pick cheap, safe, quality stocks.

Got it.

Low beta just means low historic correlation with market returns. It can be computed mechanically with no subjective judgement needed

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_asset_pricing_model

If you had invested in low beta stocks, leveraged at the same level as Buffett you would not have performed much worse.