Ask HN: What will be the effects of the upcoming rise of AI and Automation?

[maitrik]

I feel like we are living in a tipping point of human history. The rise of automation and AI will make our lives easier. We will finally be able to get rid of all the "useless" tasks we have to do.

However, my main concern is with ecomonical and sociological effects of this?

Will world GDP finally contract because of drastic reduction in cost of everything made?

Will joblessness become a norm and people can easily live off without working since humanity will finally be afford to do that?

Please someone smarter than me explain what can possibly happen in this future.

[p333347]

I can't speculate on the economics part of it all, but I have a different take. I think it will lead to another renaissance of sorts. Assuming that AI and automation are well done, it will give people a lot of free time to indulge in activities like art and philosophy more than what is possible currently (if one doesn't do it, then at least appreciate others' efforts). Liberal arts will come to fore again. There will be more intellectual activity that isn't tied to technology. Wars will become rare (after the last war to end all wars, of course). Fewer people will die (at least in non poor countries) due to advanced medicine. I am not sure what all this critical thinking etc and over population will bring about though. Probably a combination of natural phenomenon like super bugs and massive solar flare will take us back to early 1900s.

[generic_user]

I'm not going to claim to be smarter then anyone or have any answers to your questions. I will point out that artificial intelligence is something entirely different from automation.

You can make the case that Humans have been coping with automation from the rise of agrarian civilisation. Suddenly hunter gatherer tribes had to adapt to an entirely new social order and way of life. The industrial revolution radically transformed the world and we have muddled through and adapted. I think automation will always create winners and losers, wars, upheaval etc but civilization will adapt and continue on in some form.

Artificial intelligence that has a true self awareness and agency would be a genuinely new, never before seen phenomenon. What the consequences would be are totally unknown. There is no previous data or experience to measure.

[biren34]

I've been thinking about this, and for me, the driving force is status. As far as I can tell, status drug s human behavior more than anything.

So, when it comes to automation, etc. the thing that really strikes me is that some people get their status from work. Others feel that you should get your status from work. But the truth seems to be that one work is just one of way to get status.

Why does this matter? Because if we provide a basic income, only a small minority of people will continue to get their status from work. The rest will do it in some other way, like collecting YouTube subs or whatever.

This will represent a seA change in society, with a massive extension in adolescence. We'll all be in high school forever.

[atmosx]

BA is about keeping people as high as possible in Maslow's pyramid, not about giving infinite purchasing power to every single member of our society.

The way you're presenting the problem is as if being able to have basic food and shelter, will automatically throw you into the high society.

[samblr]

Superintelligence and Singularity is Near are good books to read o this.

[baccheion]

Something is up. First, the educational system (High School, and especially College) was about beating in (ie, indoctrinating) conformance, compliance, "teamwork" (leaving yourself a slave to the shht of others, in place of getting on with what needs to be done), focus (rather than branching out, hedging your bets, diversifying, etc), and other things that seemed irrelevant when it came to setting one up to be competitive and prosperous in the world at large.

I graduated at the end 2007, but it's likely things haven't changed much now. Everything was watered down, even though I was a Computer Engineering major, and there wasn't much to be gained from all that was being pumped in. In fact, it's as though they were trying to beat out of me whatever good was left, to then have there be nothing but an empty, uncompetitive, cookie-cutter shell of a person.

This approach does not line up with how the world seems to be trending, and with the "rise" of these AIs and advanced automation strategies. I'm not sure what's going to happen, but it's either going to be really bad in general, or everything will collapse forcing the need to reinforce, strengthen, or otherwise make better the BS that is the educational system and introduction to the working world.

Other things will need to change. Performance enhancers (safe, side-effect free smart drugs) may be one way to help things along (not current ones, but new and more advanced developments to meet future needs), but that could easily descend into "drugged up" culture, which is pointless.

Many things can easily be automated away to leave room to work on more interesting things and to not be as tied down as in times past; however, in looking at the groups and people behind most potential advances, I'm more scared that optimistic. I'd generally be optimistic, but these people seem either clueless, or not well intentioned. That seems like a recipe for a bad outcome.

Either way, it's about time things started getting good. Factoring endless amounts of things into an online dating match percentage calculating algorithm? Yes! It would be great to have the online dating system take into consideration many things that it would take a normal person years to evaluate on their own. And with the increased popularity/availability of smartphones, it should be fairly trivial to verify profiles, and collect information privately (and securely-- to avoid it being resold/misused by dating sites) that will further enhance the matching algorithms/strategies.

It would be nice to approach a period in time where an online dating app helps you discover who you are, what you want, what you value, and other things in the direction of better understanding yourself and what you want/need in a relationship (versus being indoctrinated with some arbitrary irrelevant garbage).

The same idea can be applied to job searching, roommate finding, business partner seeking, college selection, and many other things. I think it's been established (maybe just in my mind) that they are at least in the realm of "solvable," so now it's about doing so properly, to not end up spinning on another iteration of the same garbage.