[ghaff]

And John Leonard at MIT has said in the last couple years "not in my lifetime." He's in his forties or so. At least the particular quote I looked up was "taxis in Manhattan."

It's certainly possible that at least subsets of highway driving could come much sooner. Which would be useful but you don't get to the whole potentially not own a car until you can self-drive without a human present on most roads under a wide range of conditions.