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by hobbyjogger
3570 days ago
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The Danziger study assumed that the order in which the parolees appeared was random, which turned out not to be the case: "Danziger et al. (1) concluded that meal breaks taken by Israeli parole boards influence the boards’ decisions. This conclusion depends on the order of cases being random or at least exogenous to the timing of meal breaks. . . [But] case ordering is not random ...the board tries to complete all cases from one prison before it takes a break and to start with another prison after the break. Within each session, unrepresented prisoners usually go last and are less likely to be granted parole than prisoners with attorneys... [O]ur data indicate a success rate of 67% for prisoners with counsel and 39% for unrepresented prisoners. Excluding deferrals in the authors' data yields very similar success rates, beginning at about 75% and dropping to 42% at the end of a session. Thus, we strongly suspect that the pattern of declining success rates is a result of hearing represented prisoners first and unrepresented prisoners last." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3198355/ |
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