[forgottenacc56]

I think Gates, even if he had to give an exclusive license to IBM for DOS, would have come up with an operating system for the other computer companies demanding one. Paul Graham is wrong on how this would have played out.

Gates already had the business model in place for licensing basic to computer manufacturers. It's easy to see he would have extended that to some DOS-like operating system.

Indeed he went onto do precisely that with Windows, leaving OS/2 to IBM and failure.

PG called this one wrong. Gates would still have come to own the industry as he did, whether or not the DOS deal with IBM was exclusive. The computer industry was always set to expand and Gates was always the guy to meet the demand. Gary Kildall had shown by this stage he didn't have what it took to pick up every commercial opportunity offered.