[bogomipz]

I am curious. Sweden is a very practical and policy driven place, is the local government addressing those housing issues in some form? I know this has been an issue for some time now. I'd be interested to hear what the local discourse is on that.

[TotallyHuman]

No, they're completely sweeping them under the rug and are determined to worsen them even more by importing as many economical "refugees" as possible. The country is doomed.

[kpil]

Why is this downvoted?

There is a predicted shortage of up to 1,000,000 residences In a market of 4,500,000 or so, and a population of 10 million, recent refugees not included (yet).

The last 'fix' to the problem in 1960-1970 was building brutalist suburbs that turned into high-crime areas, and eventually into 'no-go' zones, fuelled by the virtually unlimited immigration. This is now not limited to the (three) larger cities as there are about 150 areas around the country where gang (mostly immigrant or descendant) criminality is a significant problem.

In some areas, like Södertälje and Alby- clan structures are starting to corrupt parts of the local government, giving political power to family heads while welfare systems are abused with the help of relatives working in the social services.

Grenades are thrown into apartments in gang wars, recently killing an 8 year old boy visiting from UK, and just yesterday one grenade exploded on someone's balcony just because he happened to live next to a gang member.

Meanwhile, nicer neighbourhoods have some of the highest prices in the world, except Monaco and other outliers. 1000000 USD is not much for a house in my area which is close to Stockholm but not special in any way and is within shooting range from one of those no-go zones.

This is fuelled by unlimited length mortgages with the extreme rate of around 1-2%.

The previously strong industrial economy is crumbling slowly.The largest companies listed at the Stockholm stock exchange are banks, not industrial export as for 15 years ago.

High tech jobs, like software development, are moved to neighbour countries like Estonua or Lithuania were the salary is 50%. Lower skilled jobs like call centres and backoffice jobs are going there too at a higher rate.

Is the government concerned? There are plans for an extra employment tax on banks, which will only make offshoring more attractive.

The unemployment rate is going down right now, but because there are 100,000 less young adults entering the job market than 5 years ago, unfortunately not because there are more jobs.

Meanwhile, the majority of the 1,000,000 immigrants (from the last few years) that could fill the vacancies will never find a job when they eventually enter the job market as many have almost no education, and are not skilled nearly enough for one of the most demanding job market in the world.

There are no plans whatsoever to address any of these problems as far as i can tell, except the emergency stop in the refugee policy, much too late.

Even discussing a few of them is considered racist, and instead both the government and media is doing a fair deal of spinning, like highlighting the 100 or so doctors and dentists from Syria that might get a certification within 10 years, which is as close to irrelevant to the problems as anything can be.

The central bank is balancing and trying to help the exports and the slow industry without blowing up the house market even more. The head of the central bank, Ingves, looks more and more like an angry gnome trying to highligh the risks, but no one listens.

So the downvoter is either a Swedish hipster in denial, or a troll.

[throwy667]

Can you point me to some readings about the suburbs crime situation?

[kpil]

I am not sure there is serious research done. Probably not. There is no interest as it is a career ending move.

Some news: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37161752

http://www.thelocal.se/20160404/teen-stabbed-in-street-flown...

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&art...

https://www.nrk.no/kultur/nrk-team-truet-og-kastet-stein-ett... (Norwegian - a Norweigan tv-crew is attaced in a suburb.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-go_area#Sweden (Claims 55 areas, the referenced source lists around 100 additional areas that are on the police's "watch list" whatever that means.)

https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%B6dert%C3%A4ljen%C3%A4tve... (swedish - Assyrian mafia in Södertälje)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/magnus-norell/the-muslim-broth... (Not really related to the crime, but also problematic due to the segregation that follows a muslim society within the society.)

[uola]

Even the "worst" neighborhoods are calm in Stockholm. It's nothing compared to, say, Paris or Brussels. Living in the suburb, you're far more likely to get hurt by boredom than anything else. A lot of people in Stockholm (like in other cities) are bitter of how things have developed in recent years with the financial crisis, youth unemployment and housing situation while at the same time many people have been profited of real estate and consulting. Then they extrapolate this to mean that everyone is doing badly and the country is "going down the drain". I put no judgement in that it's just not particularly relevant for you. Your personal situation is going to overshadow the other factors.

The $100k USD figure is low, it's more like 10x that for a family sized house or apartment in or close to the city. People don't really buy apartments so much as rent them from the bank.

[drakonka]

We ran into this issue when looking for a place to buy. Options were either super expensive tiny apartment in the center or something cheaper but bigger a 10-15 minute train ride away. We looked at a place in "Enskededalen". Googling revealed people talking about how horrible it was, the crime that goes on, how unsafe it is, how they would never move here, etc.

Go to visit the place...and it seems perfect. In a block of houses facing a nice yard and playground as opposed to the road, large space with a porch and balcony, plenty of room for our cats, etc. But I was suspicious. This place was meant to be so bad!

After getting some more opinions we went for it and can honestly say I have no idea what people were so afraid of. The neighborhood seems very safe - children play outside alone, it's quiet, each little house block area takes care of their yard, etc. It is a more multicultural area than say Södermalm, but that is a positive. The most "unsafe" thing I've seen here is groups of teens on walks or having a smoke in the evenings (I was wary of them at first, but have since learned they're harmless) or local toddlers leaving their toy cars underfoot in the shared yard.

[kpil]

Enskede (next to it) is one of the better areas in Stockholm so it's less expensive neighbour Enskededalen is perhaps bad only in comparison.

I think I've might have seen some druggies in the area a few times more than I would expect but that was 15 year ago... But maybe those things stick.

It's definitely not one of those no-go zones.

[kpil]

I think you will find that some suburbs in Stockholm, Malmö and Göteborg will come out rather competitive in regards to crime rate, but I give you that there are areas that are way worse.

Look at the statistics from BRÅ (The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention) - the actual research and statistics, and the trends are clear.

I am not sure were you are going with the "extrapolate" bit, but are you perhaps living in Södermalm, central Stockholm and extrapolate yourself? I've got a nice job (in consulting actually) and a reasonably small loan for my overvaluated house, so I am far from bitter, but it does not change the macro trends.

I'm especially concerned about the inflated house prices, and the long term economical trends in the industral sectors, and the lack of any politicial will to even touch the problems.

You are right about the $100K It was a typo, I corrected it.

[kpil]

But is it really common with grenade attacks in Paris, Brussels and London?

I found one reference to a attack in 2003 in London after a bit of searching. In Sweden, there has at least been 10 or so the last year, with one causalty - the 8 year old that was killed in his bed.

The rest have been explosions outsite apartments - I suppose it's a bit hard to throw a grenade through a window a few stories up. There was also an attack against some policemen in their car - I think they escaped by pure luck.

[uola]

To some extent, but personally I think it has just gone to far in the current direction that it doesn't really matter what you do.

When people think of Sweden as a "practical and policy driven place" it's a legacy of a couple of decades ago when the social democrats, for better or worse, were dominant in Swedish politics. Not necessarily because everything they did was good, but because they could trade reforms tit for tat with other parties so things got done. Today we have a situation more like in the US where there's two coalitions. With this political situation there isn't much that can be done without risking losing votes and giving the other coalition free reign to do whatever they want. So nothing gets done.

Of course like in other cities everyone has their pet theory of what to do, but I have yet to see one that is currently practical and politically viable.

There is one slight upside though. Stockholm isn't necessarily that different from an international perspective. You can still get short term contracts at international rates or better, especially with a commute of 15-30 minutes. It's mostly a relative issue based on culture, size and how things used to be.

[bogomipz]

Thanks. So this "housing issue" is really just about central Stockholm then is that correct? 15 to 30 is not much of burden in terms of commuting times.

[bjourne]

15-30 mins in commuting distance is very optimistic unless you are able to pay through your nose. Think of it like this, if you earn an average salary then you can spend this much (pre-tax income) for living this close in commuting time from the city center.

  75% of it for living < 5 mins away
  50% of it for living < 10 mins away
  30% of it for living < 15 mins away
  25% of it for living < 30 mins away
  20% of it for living < 60 mins away
  15% for > 60 mins away

Adjust percentages upwards if you are desperate and downwards if you have enough funds to purchase an apartment.

[dilemma]

The housing shortage situation is same as that of the Bay Area if you switch loose VC capital inflating prices to loose, close to zero interest rate mortgages.

As for discourse, there is none. Absolutely nothing.

[bogomipz]

Doesn't the housing shortage pre-date the low interest rates though? I understand it would certainly exacerbate it though. I near zero is most of the EU at the moment no?

[dilemma]

Yes and no. Stockholm grows by a relatively large percentage per year, and would grow even more if people could find housing there, but almost nothing is built. Whatever housing is available is condos, not rentals, so the low interest rates work to increase prices because with no rentals there's no other choice than to buy.