[fauigerzigerk]

Right. It's the classical data mining problem. What should be done is to take the reasons given and use them as a hypothesis to predict other events. Reinhart and Rogoff have done just that in their book. After reading it I find it very difficult to accept the claim that people predicting this crash were just lucky or that all their reasons are bogus.

And I think you're making a mistake to equate ball games with debt markets. The fortunes in ball games can quickly and unpredictably turn. Debt doesn't work that way. If many people on low income take out mortgages on a teaser rate that goes up two years later to levels they cannot afford unless house prices keep rising at historically exceptional rates so they can remortgage, you know you're going to be in trouble eventually.