[MrQuincle]

I would be surprised if the planning part is the most difficult part of autonomous cars. Embodied intelligence is really nowhere yet. I've seen Google using particle filters to represent other cars.

AI is just not advanced enough to cope with leaves on the road, a pedestrian who wants to cross or not, a broken traffic light, a criminal who want to steal your car, etc.

And everything as a service... Really, if we would have something that awesome as an autonomous car, wouldn't we want to own it!?

I would! I want to talk to it. And I would like to have a bed and a bath in it and have it go on a road trip with awesome beaches, castles, and sunsets.

[semi-extrinsic]

> Really, if we would have something that awesome as an autonomous car, wouldn't we want to own it!?

Because money. Let's say the first autonomous car is a Ford Fusion or similar, normal cost $30k, autonomous cost $130k (for the sake of argument; we know autonomous tech will be very expensive at least at first.)

Would a normal person buy the autonomous one? Not by a long shot.

But for a taxi company, saving as much as $100k/year on payroll expenses per car (assuming shared between drivers), the $130k car is very attractive.

[MrQuincle]

If it will be successful, many will be sold and the price will come down quickly.

I don't know why AI should stay expensive.

[semi-extrinsic]

iPhones are successful, many have been sold, yet the price has not gone down quickly.

For autonomous cars, the best-case component price estimates I've seen for solid-state LIDARs, assuming mass production, is $1000. I believe you need four of those, and then you need ultrasound, radar and super-hi-res cameras. And a big honking computer to process all that data. It's probably at least a $10k premium over the normal car just in additional hardware costs, and that's assuming mass production.

Then there's the cost of all that software development that companies will want to recoup, plus the cost of collecting and live-updating a vast data set of roads, pedestrian paths, local wildlife/other hazards, roadworks, local laws and regulations etc. in every big city and small town in all the world, to assist and confirm the information gathered by sensors in the car.

[MrQuincle]

Solid state should be cheap.

The real problem is that LIDAR instead of better "stereo camera data processing" is development in hardware rather than brainware (AI).

There is indeed a lot that needs to be developed w.r.t. brainware. However, I'm pretty sure it doesn't need to be recouped through selling cars. Brainware is valuable in many more applications.

1. Accessing the internet through Google vs Viv. 2. Household robots vs cars. 3. Agriculture.

[toomuchtodo]

iPhone prices don't go down because it's a brand and hardware controlled by Apple. AI is software, with zero marginal cost to copy.

[agumonkey]

Owning costs a lot. You need space to store it (in your house, near your job, near stores). You need to maintain it. It sits idle most of the time. Some people think it's worth it to try a different model.

[petra]

True. It's cool.

You what else is cool ? an RV. everybody dreams of owning an RV. almost nobody does.

[MrQuincle]

An autonomous RV, now we are talking. :-)

[blacksmith_tb]

So it will vacation for me, while I'm working? Or just drag me on a best-fit itinerary when I'm aboard? Either way I don't envy other road users, I already feel like RVs are hulking, slightly unpredictable monsters when I have to drive or cycle around them.