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by mikeash
3588 days ago
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Looking at a single individual is completely uninformative for rare risks like car crashes. The average driver in the US has a very roughly 5% chance of being involved in a car crash each year. If you've been driving for 50 years (just an example, no idea how long you've been on the road!) then you'd expect to have been involved in two or three crashes by that time, but there's also about an 8% chance that you've never been in a crash. |
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