[wpietri]

What's your data on A? I'm not sure it's true.

The article says net revenue was $1.1 billion in Q2. Losses were "significantly" more than $750m. So we're talking a scenario where either they lose a lot of drivers or raise prices drastically. I'd expect a fair bit of damage either way, meaning still-lower revenues.

And they have very large fixed costs. Because they've already shifted most of their operating expenses to drivers, they have relatively little room to cut costs. They have a lot of expensive staff. They have a whole robot car research operation, which can't be cheap; Toyota has committed a billion dollars to figuring that out. So it's not clear to me that they'd be able to get to break-even.

I also think C is risky for them. Their valuation is "astronomical" by Bloomberg's standards; they're supposedly worth well more than, say, Ford. That's been based on a hard charge for global dominance, not just getting by in a few markets. And getting into the black might require big cuts in their marketing budget. If their growth numbers tank, their stock will lose the "dominate the market" premium.

So even if they could somehow get into the black, I'm not sure they would still be Uber at the end of it. They might not be the next Webvan, but they certainly could be the next Groupon.