[kevinp]

Shirky wrote, "Expensive bits of video made in complex ways now compete [emphasis mine] with cheap bits made in simple ways. 'Charlie Bit My Finger' was made by amateurs, in one take, with a lousy camera." That's akin to writing in the early 2000s that since movie and TV products like "Blair Witch," "Survivor," and other reality TV programs became so popular, it meant that the public was losing its appetite for video of high production values, and that this was likely to become a permanent trend.

The talk in Edinburgh last year mentioned at the top of Shirky's piece was to UK TV executives. Here's a Reuter's headline about it: "TV executives meet in Edinburgh as ad drought continues." Here's a bit of an article from the Guardian published 2 days ago:

"Analysts double the forecast for television market in 2010

A report says that bullish spending by advertisers has led to the revised predictions for 2010

Bullish spending from TV advertisers has led analysts to more than double the forecast for year-on-year growth in the UK market, with ITV set for a boost of up to 30% in the second quarter."

[netcan]

You are kind of arguing with a sidebar to the main point which might read: "If finger biting Charlies is the direction TV is going, the movie industry will not be able to adapt."

This post is about the principle (complexity leads to collapse), not the premise of that particular example.